France vs England/ Ukraine vs Sweden (betting Journal)

•June 11, 2012 • 1 Comment

Let us begin with France vs England first. England (Fifa rank 6) and France (Fifa rank 14) .In their respective qualifying campaign, England scored 17 and concede 5 and France scored 15 and concede 4 goals . Since Sweden and Ukraine looks like easy opponents to England and France , I predict that the two sides would be playing cautious football to prevent a loss from happening as they could pick up points from Sweden and Ukraine .However I believe that France would be the more attacking side . France had been on good form unbeaten in their last 18 matches but I just do not see a clear winner but if there is then France is more likely to be winning this fixture ,so for this match I will go for total goals 1 and 2 .

On the match between Sweden and Ukraine. Sweden (Fifa rank 17) and Ukraine (Fifa rank 52) . Ukraine has lost games against teams whose fifa ranking is near Sweden’s and Sweden has scored 31 goals in their qualifying campaign and conceding 11 . Not a very good defense but let us not forget that Sweden has Holland in their group and they concede 6 goals in both of their Holland games . The Swedes still can defend against weaker sides . This game I am backing Sweden to get three points over Ukraine even though Ukraine are the Co host , there is a significant gap between the two side .

Brought Total goals 1,2 for England vs France match

Back Sweden to win against Ukraine .

Yesterday as it stand

89.35 ====> 20 dollars at stake

Bet using 10 dollars on Spain vs Italy Total goals 1 and 2

Bet using 10 dollars on Ireland vs Croatia Total goals 1 and 2

In total result in a lost of $2.5 from my betting capital , my betting capital now as is stand is 106.85 .

Seems that my 100 dollar capital have chance of losing it all before the Euro tournament ends

Today

91.85 ====> 15 dollars at stake

10 dollar bet on England Vs France Total goals 1 and 2

5 dollar bet on backing Sweden to win against Ukraine

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My thoughts on Spain vs Italy and Ireland vs Croatia

•June 10, 2012 • 1 Comment

For this match I have brought bets of Total goals 1 and 2 . I expected the game to be a cagey affair. Spain started the game trying to pass the ball around but when the Spanish move the ball into the Italian half, the Italian defended very well to prevent the Spanish from doing any real damage.  Both goalkeepers are also good in the first half. The match has low scoring written all over judging how the first half went by.

The second half start and at the 60th minute Italy scored and 3 minutes later the Spanish hit back. I start to worry for my total goals bet . Who would not be worried if they brought 1,2 total goals and a cagey game suddenly spring to life with two goals in 3 minutes . At 75th minute, Torres was through on goal but luckily he could not pass Buffon . After the second goal was score, my total goal bets are basically just hanging on a thread. Although there were a lot of chance but thankfully I got lucky and win the bet . Yahoo !

Come the Ireland vs Croatia match . I bet on 1 , 2 total goals for this match . 3 minute into a game we got a goal , my total goals bet chances of winning are going down real fast . This is a great  game for the neutrals , but a nightmare for someone who bet 1 , 2 total goals . All of the sudden , the Irish shows their fighting spirit and scores another  goal . At this point I knew that this bet is 75% chance of losing and it was already lost before half time as the referee allows that offside goal.

I just type this post and sleep .

Anyway from how this match is played , Croatia might be able to pull an upset against Italy or Spain if they can continue their first half performance into the second half . Croatia also gone quite lucky to have that third goal unfortunately for me .

So in total , I still lost 2.5 dollar in total for these 2 matches combined

Spain Vs Italy , Ireland vs Croatia ( Betting journal)

•June 10, 2012 • 1 Comment

For these two matches , I have decided not to back any sides as I do not really see any clear cut winner to emerge in the both matches . These two matches are tricky to back any sides to win . So I had gone for Total goals for these two matches and I don’t really see myself have high chances winning these two Bet . But let me share with you why I feel my bet would be the most probable outcome .

10 dollars on 1 and 2 goals for the Spain vs Italy match

10 dollars on 1 and 2 goals for the Ireland vs Croatia match

Lets start on with Spain vs Italy match .

As I look through the previous records of Spain (fifa rank 1)  performances in Major tournament , I found out that Spain has won most of their matches 1 – 0 against any top 15 fifa rank sides . Example is the world cup 2010 as from the quarter finals they won many match with scoreline 1-0 . In their qualifying  campaign they score 26 goals conceding 6 . On Italy (fifa rank 12) on the other hand , although their performances in major tournament has not been impressive but they did not ready concede many goals in those matches . Their qualifying campaign score a total of 20 goals but however they have the best defensive record of all teams that are in this euro 2012 conceding only 2-0 . Italy shouldn’t be underestimated, their backline consists mostly of Juventus’ Scudeto winning backline including Buffon, which conceded 20 goals in 38 matches. They’re stingy and a cohesive unit. So in conclusion by studying the team performance in major tournament and looking at the data I came out to aid me in betting total goals (https://nijnail.wordpress.com/2012/06/07/euro-2012-betting/) I have decide to bet total goals 1 , 2  .

Lets continue with the Ireland vs Croatia match .

For me , this is a very tough game to bet on . I am not familiar with either sides and they have not play in the recent major tournament so I do not have any reliable data to rely on . Let take a look at their qualifying campaign records . Ireland (fifa rank 18) scored 15 goals and conceding 7 , Croatia (fifa rank 8 score 18 concede 7) . So there was not much differences between the two sides . For this match I believe the two teams will try to win the match as they have Spain and Italy in their group and it is not easy to take anything away from their other two matches . The Irish have been a tough nut to crack since Trapattoni and Tardelli took over the squad. They’ve only been beaten twice in the past 20 matches vs Russia and Uruguay in a friendly . Croatia are probably a better team than Ireland. The thing is, so are Bosnia, Czech Republic, Russia and Italy and they’ve all failed to beat Ireland in the last year, and Ireland beat Bosnia and Italy. Ireland also drew 0-0 at home to Croatia in a friendly last August. However this is no friendly and they had to get 3 point over each other as they prepare to face Spain and Italy in their respective match up . And my Guess is Croatia will be trying to break down a defensive Ireland side , they might succeed but I believe more that the Ireland are capable to hold on to a 1-1 or 1-0 win .

After yesterday

100.75 ===> 10 dollars at stake (Using 5 dollars to back a Germany to win against Portugal and 5 dollars to back Holland to win against Denmark .)

Today

Resulted in 109.35 after making $3.60 profit from Germany Match and lost 5 dollars bet of Holland match

89.35 ====> 20 dollars at stake

Bet using 10 dollars on Spain vs Italy Total goals 1 and 2

Bet using 10 dollars on Ireland vs Croatia Total goals 1 and 2

However after yesterday Group B matches which most of the people thought would be high scoring , high scoring did not occur and for Group C matches it could turn out to be high scoring when most people thought they be low scoring . In betting soccer , one better not be so confident on their bets . That is why when I make a bet , i told myself that the money is lost .

Thank you to those who have been following my blog . My next post would be on my thoughts for Spain vs Italy and Ireland vs Croatia , it will be release one hour after the Ireland Vs Croatia match .

My next post on what I bet on and my analysis of the France vs England and Ukraine vs Sweden would be 23 hrs from now .

Stay tune and thank you for visiting my blog

For these two matches I need a lot of luck . Good luck to you guys out there too .

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My thoughts on Holland 0 vs 1 Denmark and Germany 1 vs 0 Portugal

•June 9, 2012 • 1 Comment

This post is the continuation of https://nijnail.wordpress.com/2012/06/09/holland-vs-denmark-germany-vs-portugal-betting-journal/

I guess I am not the only person that has lost the bet by backing Holland to win against Denmark . However in soccer nothing is predictable , that is why most betting sites do not go out of business easily.

The match between Holland and Denmark started as most people expected Holland to have more possession and create more chances against Denmark . Denmark on the other hand will try to counter and score with set pieces . The Dutch could have been in front but they were let down by their horrible finishing and are being punished for it as the Denmark drew first blood by scoring first . At that point of the time I knew if Holland horrible finishing continues I would lose my bet and Holland will lose the match . The Danes have defended well and with the aid of Holland’s horror show of finishing , they have manage to win the first match in the group of them . Many people have written the Danes off but now we got to rethink   about that . If Holland had scored first , I predict that the Dutch would win by more than a goal . If the Danes score first , they would close up and defend their 1-0 lead . Unfortunately for me it did happen , but credit to Denmark  as they deserve all 3 points .

Germany vs Portugal

This match is an open game but both side defenses are playing well and therefore there are not many chances created in the first half . I back Germany to win this game for my bet . They started well and things are looking positive but created a few chances against a Portugal defense . Portugal looks motivated for the match , their work rate matched Germany . The first half ended with a 0-0 draw with Pepe hitting the post with an effort which my heart stop for a second .Still Germany looking the better side  for the first half. The second half started with Germany bombarding the Portuguese goal but the game quiet down after 5 min . At the 73 minute just as the German’s coach is ready to put Gomez back to the bench after another lackluster performance , Gomez scores and give his coach something to think about . Right after the German scores , Portugal start pressing on and they did threaten the German goal . I got an heart attack on 87 min as I saw Portugal getting a clear shot at German . The Germans held on really well as Portugal kept on attacking , my 5 dollars could be lost anytime . But they held on and my won my bet .

Holland was disappointing . Germany nearly could have drawn too but luckily did not .

 

For the two games which most of the people would thought be high scoring games , they turn out to be a 1-0 win . Felt that many people would have lost their Total goal bet .

Holland Vs Denmark , Germany vs Portugal ( Betting journal)

•June 9, 2012 • 3 Comments

https://nijnail.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/poland-vs-greece-russia-vs-czech-betting-journal/

This post is continuation of the above link .

I start with 100 dollars .

10 dollars on total goals 1 and 2 on Poland vs Greece match

5 dollars to back Russia to win against Czech

After day one of Euro 2012 . I got the Total goals on Poland vs Greece match and back Russia to win correct . https://nijnail.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/my-thoughts-on-poland-1-vs-1-greece-and-russia-2-vs-1-czech-9/

As it stand have $110.75 as I profited from the winning bets above .

I now use 5 dollars to back a Germany to win against Portugal and 5 dollars to back Holland to win against Denmark .

100.75 ===> 10 dollars at stake

Reason why I back Germany and Holland to win is simple

Denmark (Fifa rank 9) looks to be the weakest on paper in this Group B group of death , the dutch will be focusing on getting 3 points from this match as it would be easier compare trying to get a win against Germany and Portugal  . Holland (Fifa rank 4) have been Impressive in their qualifying campaign scoring 37 goals and conceding 8 compared Denmark Scoring 15 and conceding 8 . I expect to see Holland to be attacking Denmark most of the time and Denmark defending and counter later in the match .I have pick a Holland win for this as i felt is the safest .

The other match which is Germany vs Portugal , I have pick Germany to win this as I felt that Portugal is a bit overrated . Yes they have good players like Ronaldo and Nani , however I do not see Portugal playing as a team . Portugal qualifying campaign stats are not that great either , scoring 21 goals but conceding 12 . They concede the most in the qualifying campaign compare to the other countries . Germany on the other hand score 34 and concede 7 in qualifying . Based on the stat, I would expect this to be a exciting open game but however Portugal attack will not be threatening and will frequently loses the ball and lead to a Germany counter attack . Germany is also a very fit team with fast players and they can hold the ball well too .

As the two games has very high chances that many goals would be scored , playing total goal would be a very risky affair .

Although betting that Holland and Germany to win 2 goals or more looks good . But i would still go for a Holland and Germany win only . Although the winning might be measly , my strategy has been to go for the safest and the bet which I am most comfortable with . My number 1 principle in betting is that

( Protecting capital > opportunity to win more $  )

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My thoughts on Poland 1 vs 1 Greece and Russia 2 vs 1 Czech

•June 8, 2012 • 2 Comments

This is a follow up on https://nijnail.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/poland-vs-greece-russia-vs-czech-betting-journal/ so far

Poland Vs Greece . This match I had expected it to be a cagey affair as Poland has been winning mostly 1-0 in their friendlies and plus with the Greece Trademark defense I do not have high hopes for an exciting game . Poland play a 4231 vs Greece 433. The first half begun with the Polish attacking Greece , Poland work rate and movement of the ball was good and soon they got their goal from Robert Lewandowski in the 17th minute . The Greece defense was horrible as I guess Greece thought that Poland rank 62 would be a easy win and got nervous when Poland have a real go at them . Greece nightmare was not over as they found themselves 1 men down due to red card for two soft foul .

The second begins and Greece came out a different side , they start to have a higher work rate and keep pressure Poland . Whatever the Greece manager said to the players at half time must have work wonders . The Polish are looking complacent as they are one goal up and Greece are one men down. According to the script , Greece should be losing but they torn up the script and attempt to rewrite it . Greece score at 51min . Greece continue to attack and found themselves awarded a penalty as the current arsenal keeper Wojciech Szczęsny took away the Greece player legs . With the Penalty , Greece feels they got 3 points in the bag . However replacement keeper Przemyslaw Tyton saves it . I was nervous throughout the game as I brought Total goals 1 and 2 , the penalty save is a miracle . I have not lost my bet yet ! After the penalty save both teams seems to only want to not lose and therefore the game slows down . I of course is a happy man as if they want to keep the score 1-1 I would win my total goal bet and I did win .

Now onto the next match Russia Vs Czech .Russia play 433 and Czech plays a 4231. This match was entertaining as the both teams play an open game . From the match I can see that Russia has been the better side throughout the 90mins . Their build up plays were good and they create lots of chances , the Russian went on to score 2 goals before half time and Czech was 2-0 down . At that point of the time I felt my backing of a Russia looks good . But however I got a scare at early half time as Czech score . But it doesn’t matter as Russian went on to score 2 more goals later on .

First day of euro 2012 I finish as a happy man winning my total goals and backing Russia to win

Here are what I bet on . https://nijnail.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/poland-vs-greece-russia-vs-czech-betting-journal/

The next post will be about who I will back on Group B matches Holland vs Denmark and Germany vs Portugal .

Poland Vs Greece , Russia vs Czech ( Betting journal)

•June 8, 2012 • 2 Comments

As I mention in my earlier blogs , I going to start with a 100SGD and see if I can bet through the entire tournament . Here it goes for my very first bet of Euro 2010 .

For Poland Vs Greece I choose to bet on total goals , I not confident in choosing sides to win for this .Poland is rank at 62 and Greece is rank at 15.  Greece defends is decent as they only concede 5 in their qualifying campaign  and they only score 15 . For Poland I don’t know much about them as they have been winning their their friendlies recently 4 win and 1 draw against Portugal in their last five matches with most win ending up 1-0 . With so many 1-0 win Poland tactics could be to defend and counter . For this match i choose to buy 5 dollar on total goal 1 and 5 dollars on total goal 2 as I felt that both teams attacking strength are not that strong .

For Russia vs Czech match , I have decided to back russia for the win as the data from the qualifying campaign shoes that Russia score 17 concede 4 and rank at 17 whereas Czech score 12 and concede 8 and rank at 27. I am quite sure Russia will win for this but however I have always keep in mind that nothing is certain but I always bet on the most probable.

I start with 100 dollars .

10 dollars on total goals 1 and 2 on Poland vs Greece match

5 dollars to back Russia to win against Czech

Now I have 85 dollar left and 15 dollars at risk LOL . All the best for you if you are betting too .Image